Signs Commentaries

Bungee Families

2009-11-16T07:22:00.000-08:00

It is possible that the large family home might come in vogue again. If children move in and out of the house and grandparents live longer, healthier lives as the trends now suggest, that oversized house might actually have more use than just touting financial success. It is possible that many families might go back to three generational living (or four in some cases). We know that children are going through puberty earlier and earlier. Until we are able to understand why and change those conditions, there might be a teen period between ages nine and age fourteen or fifteen, and then a youthful parent stage between 15-16 and 30. Education might be earlier for those who manage not to have children and later for others. The general age of people in tertiary studies is going up, and that could well continue.

Childcare could be everyone’s responsibility and families will have to learn to clearly define their duties in relation to the children or the children will learn to manipulate very early. Where there are several children with their families, it will be even more important to define duties and responsibilities. The grandparent who gets to spoil their grandchildren will be few and far between. More people in the family will have to work in order to support the larger family group, but the major bread winners could be those between 30 to70 or even 75+ for those who are really healthy. The dream of having health, no responsibility and money could be a passing fancy.

With puberty coming younger and physical development staying much the same as it has for centuries, a space could open for a wise elder or two to be the family leader. The term "grand" parent might take on new meaning and Asian ancestor worship might be reinstituted. There will still be a role for young and older parents as well as grandparents to keep the immature children with a full-blown lust drive distracted by other interests and developmental activities. The pressure of being popular, liked and even loved could be pushed down to very young years which would be shocking for older generations. The relatively stable family home might provide some security for children that they might not have gotten in a nuclear family. Naturally, an extended family that is dysfunctional will not leave all the problems behind them. A split family or an individual might rejoin or create a new family much as is the trend today. It will not be easy to survive alone in a big family culture.

Not everyone will be able to purchase, build or maintain a family home. In that case, they might rent a number of apartments in the same building and make renting more respectable as it will not be a temporary solution, but a more permanent one. More independent oriented family members might like to be able to shut the door on their family and have a bit of alone time with a smaller group behind a locked door!

Given the logical consequences of more drastic weather and rising water levels, there could be lots of people on the move. They will try to move with their families and within their culture groups. Finding larger homes to house them and the land to place them on that isn’t appropriate for food production will be difficult. It will mean that density will push cities farther past their limits than they are now until people realize that they can’t have so many children as there is no room or food for them. As the total population comes down, stress illness and problems within families will start to ease off. Housing architecture will change. In some areas, housing clusters might develop with groups of small houses that share a larger kitchen and recreation area, while sleeping and storage areas will be separate. They will be surrounded by gardens, and places for the whole family to exercise. Other creative solutions to complex family living will surely develop. Families with a same sex partners will not make a bit of difference as many will choose to have children and will have older parents living with them. If children are not born into a family, the dynamics will be less complicated and when those family homes become empty, they will then be a contribution to a very slow moving housing market.

The swing generation in these families will have a difficult time adjusting to the loss of what they had dreamed would be their older years. Those having grown up in multi-generational households will have an easier time adjusting. It is very possible that Bungee families are just the beginning of this multi-generational living. Get ready to love the ones you are with, there will be less chance to run away or avoid generational problems.

Transportation with perspective

2009-09-10T08:19:00.000-07:00

In the search for alternative transportation that gets us out of our cars, but gives all the advantages of the automobile some are choosing monorail solutions. They can be built over current streets and highways so they require no major land appropriation. Even on the ground, only pillars and possibly stations will take up space. Monorails get up us up over the town, and while we won’t get a bird’s eye view, we will be viewing cities from a new perspective. We might have huge glazed buildings on either side of us or, all the glass left over from thoughts of endless oil, giving us a view into people’s offices and work lives. Window shopping might take another turn, stores might be on the second or third floor and we will see their displays as we wiz by.

Some buildings will still be low enough to see their roofs, maybe even gardens on those roofs where food for the lunch we will eat later is growing. In more open terrain we might have lovely views of rivers, living areas with houses and parks. Concert music may waif up to us as we fly by the bandstand in the park.

This might sound like a tale of the future, but in Uppsala, not far from the capitol of Stockholm, Sweden, a Korean firm is testing the impact of weather upon a monorail system. Safety has already been approved by Swedish Rail and the first of three cities is gearing up. In 1994, A Tale of the Future, a book written from the research of 35 budding Futurists, described the motivations for a monorail system like this:

“The Monorail project is based on the vision that the Monorail should facilitate harmony in the life of the city. The Monorail was designed with the view to contribute to all of man’s various possibilities to live a good life in the city and not just get to work. The designers have seen to the totality of man’s needs. The trip on board the Monorail is organized so that the riders will have a pleasant, inspired, and educational ride, since people’s lives continue even during a trip. Eating, working or studying are possible on board. It is even possible to relax in peace and quiet, socialize or be alone. The monorail is also built to be pleasant even for those not onboard. It runs quietly and is built a little above ground so that it doesn’t cut across any walkways or bicycle paths.” (A Tale of the Future is available without cost online.

In a totally different part of the world, namely, Caracas, Venezuela, politicians struggle with the huge, steep slum areas that get more permanent every day. A think tank came up with the idea of providing transportation where none existed. One area, the San Augustine Neighborhood is visible from the city due to its hillside location, but transportation to Caracas is very poor. This one neighborhood houses 40,000 people and was a good place to try urban cable cars (pictured above), with five stations around which services would be built, health care, day care, supermarkets, and recreation facilities.

These transportation systems with perspective may be a sign of what to expect in mass transit in the next 50 years, but like energy and many other problems that need new solutions, the result may well be different, and adjusted to local conditions. A wonderful consequence of this is that when we travel in the future, the true promise of going to another part of the world will be fulfilled once again. We will once again see variety in how people get from place to place and live their lives because local conditions will have been satisfied. Perspective will not only come from traveling with the birds, but from realizing that copying the West will be a dimming trend and solving the problem of sustainability will be the leading motivation.

2009-08-07T03:30:00.000-07:00

In the earlier days of brain research most of the results were function identification. Discovering where the different parts of the brain began and ended was the question of the day. As that became clearer, the next question was what was the function of each part? We got right brain and left brain concepts from that phase of research. With the invention of MRI and fMRI neurologist have been able to see how the different parts of the brain react with each other and even with the rest of the body. That line of questioning has moved scientists from linear thinking to complex thinking.

Some people in the field of education did not wait for science to validate their insights and created their own pedagogies such as Dr. Maria Montessori, the first female medical doctor in Italy. Dr. Montessori based her ideas upon observation of mentally disturbed and uncared for children and after success with them she applied her learning to healthy children. Maria Montessori was not the first, but one of several who tried to influence pedagogy with their observations of how children actually learned. Meanwhile, neurologist worked in their own laboratories trying to understand the workings of the brain as opposed to the behavioral results of brain activity. There was very little contact between neurologist and educators. This was not unusual given that all professions up until about fifteen years ago were considered separate entities. This was fueled by the belief that teachers were not considered capable of understanding neuroscience.

Now on an increasing scale, educators, pedagogues and neurologist have begun to research together, testing the various activities that can enhance various qualities and skills found in the brain. This collective effort has moved education into the beginning of a new paradigm of teaching and learning. It is being called Brain-based education and describes the link between the results of brain research and the pedagogic actions taken in the classroom. It is multi-disciplinary because we now understand that the whole person has to be educated precipitating interaction between sociologists, physical fitness experts, psychiatrists, nutritionist, psychologists, and cognitive scientists and the classroom teacher.

Have a look at Signs of the Times for more practical information.

The un-development of towns and Towns Rethink Self-Reliance as Finances Worsen

2009-06-01T06:08:00.000-07:00

In the current Signs of the Times we have focused upon local solutions that are towns and parts of larger cities taking collective action to form new, local, economies and develop a sense of community. Local farmers join in with city folk eager for fresh vegetables and fruit, street corners develop as a place to meet, talk and maybe swap a book or children’s toys. Neighbors turning their yards into gardens and swapping or selling produce and eggs to one another.

This Signs of the Times we present two other ways of saving local areas. In Sweden, a town replaces industrial production with technology and research. From being a huge producer of textile products to a focus on design and research, the city of Borås has slowly evolved to a city that has moved from textiles to woven goods. Instead of sheeting and other house hold items, the local research center has focused upon other woven products that have increased applications, like stronger woven materials for bulletproof vests, materials that block the sun or deliver vitamins. In other words, they are developing tomorrow’s products for totally new markets while using knowledge of woven products that has existed in the workforce for generations.

The other survival method comes from the United States where the concept of dissolution is being discussed. When small towns and villages become in able to meet their legal commitments of policing, firefighting, health or education services, the citizens are inadvertently punished. But if the next largest authority agrees to take them in and provide those services in exchange for their taxes, the problem may be solved. However, finding the right authority to take in these citizens may not be easy. There are surely other solutions to the problems small towns are facing today, which ones will your town choose or create?

The cost of living alone up, health and environment down

2009-04-19T03:44:00.000-07:00

An addition to a Sign of the Times dated April 4, 2009 where I reported on the increase in individuals in cities who live alone and the social consequences of this behavior titled The Lonely American.

An article entitled Love in the Time of Recession, talks about the effect of relationships on related products like weddings and romance novels. It appears that our living-alone citizens are buying more romance novels and spending more on dating services. It means that living alone is more secure when the economy is up and less secure when the economy is down. If one were to extrapolate to the greater society, does it not partially explain the reason that market based economies tend to prize individual successes and pulling one’s self up by the boot straps and economies with more collective focus tend to promote family harmony, collective gain and unity or solidarity?

Have you noticed that collective approach of President Obama more is more than a little scarry to the over fourty percent of voters that didn't vote for him? His tendencies towards "WE can change", instead of YOU can suceed are a negative signal to them.

The establishment reconsiders BNP

2009-04-16T04:00:00.000-07:00

In Signs, I reported on the establishment's look at replacing the Gross National Product (GNP)with something new. Naturally, that something new already exists and is being used. Redefining Progress (a think tank) started in 1994 by Ted Halstead has been working toward this goal by developing the Genuine Progress Indicator.

The GPI incorporates personal consumption data just as the GNP. It adjusts those figures for some factors and adds others. The GPI looks at income distribution, adds the value of household and volunteer work and higher education. It looks at the costs for resource depletion due to crime and pollution, long-term environmental damage, negative changes in leisure time. It adds the cost of defense expenditures, accidents, misfortunes, illness or what people spend to prevent any changes in their lifestyle, medical and repair bills, pollution control devices, etc.

The life expectancy of consumer durables and infrastructure like roads, electricity lines can be negative if representing losses. The amount of monetary reserve a nation maintains or borrowed capital it has, is a sign of health or illness. If used for in-country investment it is positive and only becomes negative when used to finance consumption.

If a nation allows its capital stock to decline, or if it finances consumption with borrowed capital, it is living over its resources. The GPI counts net additions to the capital stock as contributions to well-being, and treats money borrowed from abroad as reductions. If the borrowed money is used for investment, the negative effects are canceled out. But if the borrowed money is used to finance consumption, the GPI declines.

The heat could be off the financial system, while other areas like health care will be scrutinized for their ability to keep people healthy!

Changing how we define and measure progress will make a huge difference in our lives, our choices and our way to see the world. Because the traditional measure of national production remains in each measure, we might not feel the change quite as much as if were just replaced, not added to with other measures.

Reintroducing of Electric Cars

2009-03-27T08:09:00.000-07:00

As a trend watcher and prejudiced by the desire to continue having access to individualized transportation, I have been watching the fast moving trends in automobiles. Originally, I was betting upon sun powered hydrogen, but that hasn't come about yet and then I found out that a rare element was needed to make the system work. Anything that is rare implies exclusivity, only the rich will be able to afford it, and insures the status of those who control it. There is still hope for hydrogen, but as one of several solutions to the zero emissions problem. Here is how the hydrogen project is looking in Europe and Scandinavia. The European hydrogen highway is a network is of partners in various countries who are developing refueling stations from Norway and Sweden and south as far south as Italy. Germany has the largest number, with 26 refueling stations.

Batteries were a problem but the lithium batteries written about in 2004 and 2005 were to utilize nano-technology which can affect the size and durability of the batteries. As I wrote in an earlier “Signs of the Times”: "The three reasons that electric cars have not had larger success has to do with the batteries being too heavy, shorter driving distances, long charging times and expense of electricity. This battery seems to solve all those problems."

In October 2007, I wrote about electrical vehicles, EV’s, which were tested around the United States and then taken away and destroyed, thus following an earlier scheme from the 1920’s to get electric cars off the roads when gasoline became cheaper.

The West with its Better Place is an example of a social economic company. It’s goal is to reintroduce electric cars and a workable infrastructure to governments around the world. They are working to get people paying by the mile not by the tank. Currently, they have projects with the Northern California Bay area region, the governments of Israel, Canada, Australia and Denmark. More are joining every day. Two car manufactures have committed to building electric cars. In this project economic growth and environmental growth are connected.

The infrastructure will provide work in production (building cars, maintaining batteries, charging stations, and in digital and battery design and development and in service). Instead of gas stations there will need to be places for cars to charge their batteries, places to exchange their batteries when taking longer trips and software instead of a gas meter. Battery chargers will be located at workplaces, homes, shops and parking lots. For longer trips over 161 kilometers battery switching will be available. Most of the time one will be able to charge at home. In countries with an abundance of sun, an over production of electricity will be stored in car batteries. We never know which solution for zero emissions will take hold and neither do we know the contribution of electric cars to magnetic fields to which some individuals have physiological reactions or other unhealthy responses that may arise. Personally, I look forward to the quiet and fresh air!

Det Stora Nätverksmötet (The Big Network Meeting)

2009-02-27T00:37:00.001-08:00

My time was well spent at a network meeting for Social entrepreneurs on the 12th of February if for no other reason than the excitement of hearing what kinds of projects were happening around the world. The creativity in this field makes the rest of the business world look very sad. First, here is a description of social entrepreneurs. Social entrepreneurship is a name that has been given to businesses that have as their first goal to make a positive difference in society while earning reasonable profits.

Secondly, there is a group of programs that are the venture capitalists behind social entrepreneurs. Ashoka searches and supports the world’s leading social entrepreneurs. New projects can start at a place like The Hub, which is in seven countries and offers basic office space and services to new starts to work out their ideas and get a prototype made. A stock exchange started in England to help new started social enterprises with access to risk finance for expansion and growth.

Then, we have some examples of the projects themselves. My favorite was Peepoole, a short version of peeing,pooping people. The idea is to bring better sanitation to 2.6billion people who have none at this time. It is a relatively simple concept, which makes it all the more elegant. Take two biodegradable plastic bags, an inner and an outer. Line the inner bag with an enzyme, which combined with urea builds ammonia. The ammonia kills all bacteria and virus, rendering the contents safe enough after four days to sow the seeds of eatable plants. The product has been tested in Africa and the users are largely positive. Lower production costs and moving production to local areas is the next challenge, but the concept works. There are many effects of using these small personal toilets. Women seem to like them best. In a number of cultures, women only feel safe from attack and the view of others when going out at night to relieve themselves. Many drink only just before dark so that they only have to urinate after sunset. Having their own little bag, they can use it in their own home. It can lay there till morning, odor free. Even if it is just tossed on a trash heap, it will be safe within 4-6 days depending upon the weather. The damage caused on land and to waterways disappears, because the contents become fertilizer (with inherent costs savings) and does not just wash into the nearest stream, river or ocean. Proximity to water has traditionally been thought of as the best disposal place, the water washing away feces and diluting urine. However, we now know that diseases and water pollution are the result. These simple bags eliminate that.

Some other exciting initiatives are samples below:
Take a Palestine nerd and an Israeli nerd, add a little hotel called Everest located just on the border (surrounded by the wall) and a gathering of peace loving, computer savvy people, you have motivation and a place to discuss issues without guns.

An elderly man in Soweto, suburb of Johannesburg, saw a hill near his village where violence had taken place and now it was filled with trash. Slowly, the trash disappeared and some of the villagers got involved. The old man planted and created a monument to those who had died there. When the UN summit "Earth" was in Johannesburg in 2002, Kofi Annan came to the hill and made an elegant speech which acknowledged all those who had died on the hill and those who had “recycled” it. The hill remains a source of hope to those for whom hope is a long in coming.

A young woman in the UK wanted to make shoes out of recycled material. Her first attempts fell apart with the first rain. Shortly thereafter, she met a young fellow at a pub and it turned out that his father was a prominent shoe manufacturer. A little help from experts and she is now making her recycled shoes.
Feel inspired?

Keeping up with the Jones' - housing

2009-02-05T05:17:00.001-08:00

What is considered current and what is considered a new trend depends a lot upon the audience. The 10 trends are shown in Signs of The Times are not new with professional people but they might be new to people who have not been following anything concerning new home construction.

1. Earth-Friendly Home Design
2. "Prefab" Home Design
3. Adaptive Reuse in Home Design
4. Healthy Home Design
5. Storm-Resistant Home Design
6. Flexible Floor Plans in Home Design
7. Accessible Home Design
8. Outdoor Rooms in Home Design
9. Abundant Storage in Home Design
10. Eastern Ideas in Home Design

Of course, they come from an American source and some will be well integrated in other countries. For example earth-friendly home design has been going on in Germany and other countries for twenty years at least and the trend is just now taking off in the States.

There seem to be dichotomies in house building, those who want to build an environmentally friendly home, but don't realize that a big home and large closets just encourage consumerism, which they have not counted as contributing to global warming. Another dichotomy is between those who build low tech and others who add mile after mile of wiring to have lights, heating, sound systems, heating and energy monitors digitalized and controlled from their mobile telephone. Living costs are a consideration for many as so many who build houses retire.

A small, but important group of Brits dream of warmer climates and renovate old barns, churches and houses all of which are slowly crumbling. Most of this type of renovation goes on in France, Italy and even Spain. Naturally, they make an enormous contribution to their new communities, and many are trying to reuse brick and beams found on the property, but not all are environmentally friendly.

Those lucky enough to find property to build on or renovate in London are using double insolated containers with south facing windows. In addition, they are environmentally sound with green roofs, water collection and small wind turbines outside. Lisbon, Berlin and Toronto are copying London's Village Underground where offices are placed upon an old storage local and are made of old subway cars. Painted and decorated with exciting interior design these new offices may be the first recycling of old subway cars.

”The Future: Collecting Solar Energy at Night

2008-11-03T07:58:00.000-08:00

Just imagine the consequences of affordable "solar" technology that could produce electricity from internal light sources, light bulbs of all kinds, TV and computer screens, night lights and daylight within the room, as well as from infra-red light waves at night and the sun of course! Since the collection technology could be printed on wall paper, any smooth surface, indoors or out, you would have enough energy even on the cloudiest days. Let us assume that the above describes the existing situation. What might some consequences be? 1. Light which creates light which creates light (perpetual light machine?). 2. Dwelling energy independence 3. No restrictions on energy use 4. Demand for electric cars
And the consequences of number 1, Light which creates light: a. cities bright as day at night, b. the disappearance of electric saving appliances c. a portable computer that creates it's own electricity by shining all night on an electric converter pad. The consequences of number 2, Dwelling energy independence: a. homeless who use outdoor energy to light and warm their shelter, b. No more electric companies c. dams diminish.
Now that I have done two, do two for yourself. Try discovering the consequences of the consequences. Somewhere there you have the future of solar power in the long-range future.

New method for clipping grass

2008-10-01T01:42:00.000-07:00

A lot of things are happening with horses these days. A particularly well articulated example is from Sweden where about a third of all the citizens of Sweden have in some form, contact with horses. The following trends are particular to Sweden, but have resonance for other developing countries.

People move to the country in order to be able to keep their own horses.

Horses are increasingly accorded human qualities.

The use of horses i therapeutic settings with, for example, troubled youth, prisoners and handicapped persons grows.

Increase in therapies for horses such as massage, working stretch points, acupuncture, stretching and homo pathology.

More communication and cooperation between different members of the horse industry.

Horse tourism is on the rise and there is a connection between increased riding and increases in mountain wandering, cycling and fishing.

More specialization in food production for horses.

Technical development in horse breeding such as cloning and embryo transfer and digitalized breeding registers.

Greater focus on protection of animals measured by increased reports of mishandle to authorities.

More horses put on diets.

The use of working horses as an environmental alternative in new/old areas: on farms, cutting park lawns, in school transportation and garbage collection.

The source is the report Future Scanning on the Horse Industry by the Swedish Board of Agriculture (Jordbruksverket) May 2008 Ask yourself if there is a score you wish was higher or lower. http://www.sjv.se/nyhetsarkiv/nyheter/hastsverige2017jordbruksverketsamladehastsektornforframtidsspaning.5.1c72e95711857a22453800014638.html

"What is the economy for?"

2008-08-12T05:13:00.000-07:00

Bill McKibben is not the only one questioning the economy in his book "Deep Economy:The Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future" . Joel Arthur Barker speaks about paradigm change in terms of problems solved (Paradigms: The Business of discovering the Future 1993). New paradigms solve problems that the old one no longer can. The current economy is no longer solving problems, it is creating them. It is totally dependent upon growth for survival, more customers and new products are necessities for current economic health. The United Nations has noted that population has for the first time shown tendencies of slowing, particularly in so called industralized nations. We are seeing statistics for many countries like Japan, Italy and Spain that are at replacement level or below. That means that while the customer base is still growing, we can calculate it's downward turn. This is a first in human history.

The current economy has created huge pollution problems, many of which may never really be solved. The current economic measures only include what we produce per person as if items are the only things that are worth measuring. That means that weapons produced are counted and the loving care of a couple for a foster child is not counted. The distruction caused by weapons as in a war is counted as positive for the economy as the damage is repaired, but the lives distroyed and lost can never be repaired and often lead to new wars. Politically, corporations have taken over power from many democracies so that people have lost faith in both government and corporations.

One of several economic writers in Visionscentrets library is, Margit Kennedy who wrote a little book titled "Interest and inflation free economy" (1988) in Germany, in the same year, Marilyn Waring came out with "If Women Counted, A New feminist Economics" (1988). As indicated by the title, Waring digs deep into the gender bais of economic measurements on an international scale. Hazel Henderson, writing in 1992 and 1996, also covered economy from a women's perspective, but goes"Beyond the Battle of the Sexes" (Chapter 5) in "Paradigms in Progress: Life Beyone Economics"). While Paradigms gave ideas as to how a new system could work "Building a win-win World: Life beyone Global Economic Warfare" deepened her writing by offering new ways of measuring prosperity.

"Binary Economics; A New Paradigm" (1999) by Robert Ashford and Rodney Shakespeare goes deeper into economics with an eye for the elimination of poverty and the discrimination that characterizes market economy. "The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power" (2004) by Joel Bakan (not to be confused with Joel Barker) looks at our economic system from a structural perspective. He presents a detailed history of the development of the corporate entitiy from the 17th century forward and suggests what we need to do to change this structure so that the economy will work for the people not just the corporations.

There is also a bevy of practioners who are actualizing the ideas of these writers and some of their own. All in all there is a growing "margin" from where one can become aware and inspired. The greater numbers of individuals who spread, discuss and try these ideas will bring us closer to a new economic paradigm. It will not be perfect, but it will solve the problems that the old system didn't solve and create some new ones of its own!

Grape expectations

2008-05-19T04:10:00.000-07:00

By looking at the latest brain research, we can begin to understand why. We tend to envision the near future as optimistic, and in addition, research has found that the brain tends to experience what it expects. One question is how do we find the people who have expectations like ours?

One of those places is within those of our own generation, to the time in history in which we were born. As Strauss and Howe point out in their theory of generations, we are very influenced by the generation (a period of approx. 22 years) into which we are born and with whom we experience historic happenings. (See Signs of the Times 0805).

Other theories refer to family placement: first born, last born, middle child etc. as shaping what we believe others expect to don't expect of us. "The basic idea is that people who grow up in the same sibling position predictably have important common characteristics." There is a natural order in families where the older children are leaders over the younger children. If things are relatively normal in the family they carry these expectations into their relationships and marriages. If the parents in some way exaggerate or distort these roles, such as by demanding way too much of the older child, his or her expectations of him or herself and the future will change.

The list of what causes us to expect what we do can go on. Advertizing tells stories about what is desirable and what is less desirable. Past experience and the experiences of others shape what to some degree what we expect.

Our way of handling change influences the expectations we have for the future, some of us are happy with the security of keeping things just as they are, some of us thrive on change and others like change in moderate doses. Foresight Styles and Innovation Diffusion are related theories of how change is made.

Still, we are told that with practice we can consciously control and choose what we wish to expect. Years ago I lost a good friend because she had expectations that, in her view, I didn't live up to. If she had realized that those were her expectations and not mine we might still be friends today. If I had expected that it was within the realm of possibility to be asked out for New Years Eve by a certain young man in my life it might have changed any number of things. Are we prisoners of our expectations, or can we consciously change them and therefore change our lives?

Ties Between Memory and Imagination

2008-04-22T05:51:00.000-07:00

"I remember the winter when it didn't start to snow until March. It was a long way between the out house and the cottage and it was cold.... "

“Psychologists use fMRI to Understand Ties between Memories and the Imagination?”

A theory of memory states that recalling the past uses the same neurological pathways as envisioning the future. Therefore, scientists think that if one cannot remember the past, it is very hard to envision the future. If one does not have memories of their own, it is still possible to substitute the general knowledge we have of the world around us, researchers found. Retelling of memories includes physical, visual and other memory fragments related to just that memory. Sitting around with good friends is the right time to exercise you story telling. You know how some people tell stories about the time something embarrassing happened to them and they laugh at themselves and how funny they were? That is one way to build up your memory. There doesn't have to be a joke at the end, it could be sad, or an experience you learned from, that you relate to others. Try to put in the details that make the story more memorable. Another time think about a time in the future and how you would like things to be. If it is a future that isn't just about you, but about your community, country, the world, and it is generally positive, then you are creating a vision of the future. Creating future visions gives you something to work towards. It provides material for future dreams and successes. Good Luck!

“Can Ranking Employees Do More Harm Than Good?”

2008-02-27T05:38:00.000-08:00

The trend of ranking employees by giving them grades based on a Bell Curve is not going to be long-lived, in spite of its popularity. I say this because anyone in the management world soon begins to realize that trends change from one year to another. In 14 years, Bain, a global business consulting firm, has done 11 multi-year surveys. The lists change from year to year, with some management tools and trends lasting and others disappearing.
In the recent past it was considered progressive to treat both employees and students as individuals. No one really knew how to do this, but they did realize that it made sense, given that no two individuals were ever alike, sometimes similar, but not alike. (Recent research shows that even identical twins have small genetic differences). During the time it has taken to develop truly individualized learning and evaluation methods, the world has moved on. Immigration has increased worldwide and forced people together from very different cultures, both in schools and in the workplace. Parents and workers, in many cases were from collective cultures, where a case of bad grades or performance reflected upon the family more than on the individual.
Economic shifts towards increasingly strict interpretations of market economy demand high performance and the ability to predict that performance. Stock prices and incomes must be kept high in order to deliver to stockholders. So the search for the best predictors of future performance is driven by the need to grade.
A series of changes, the movement from fossil fuel based energy to renewable energy, the worry of climate change, changes war from being country against country to internal conflicts and international terrorist activity, the need to change our live styles and much more make us nervous and unsure. We sometimes tend to grab onto the things we know best and in this case grades are the choice. Those who made good grades will probably be the most interested in using them as a measure. Here are three answers in a Metro newspaper article in response to the question “Is it good that employees get grades on the job?”:
“Yes, then one can fight a little more and get better results”, “Yes, it is, of course good, it keeps on working properly.” And “Yes, if management and personnel are in agreement, and help is given to help personnel be better.” Yet, this writer is not convinced.
There is a method that has been tried successfully in both schools and in the workplace. That is to measure one’s self against one’s own past performance not against others in the group. It takes more time, as employees have to learn how to evaluate themselves and then discuss differences with the boss or the teacher. The skills must be clearly defined, especially skills in personal relations and social competence. It has been known for some time that the individual always is tougher in evaluating themselves than is the boss or teacher. Instead of going ahead and perfecting this method, which admittedly is not easy in the beginning, the tendency is to fall back upon what is known i.e. grades. If grades are so good, why are students not getting them? In Sweden, many students are leaving school without fullfilling their gymnasium requirements. This gives students and employees a low picture of their worth, their place in society and expectations for their future.
In the business world, grading employees is more a fad than of a trend. See http://www.framtidsbygget.se/E/trender/index.htm The real trend might be the search for ways to measure performance.

The functioning of not-for-profit, philanthropic, or “civil society” organizations

2008-01-21T07:26:00.000-08:00

Let me wish you a happy new year! Maybe I should say I hope you had a happy 2007 and fulfilled everyone’s wishes for you! As you may have noticed, we took our usual break in December. This time we were busy moving both Visionscentret Framtidsbygget (The Vision Center) and our household. For a Futurist it was a very short-term, strategic thing to do. The logistics was unbelievable.

Now we are here in the country and I am writing from our new office. The naked trees still stand out in front of a grey-blue sky as darkness approaches.I have written before about alternative money systems and the need for revision of corporate legislation, that is give incorporated business more social and environmental responsibility.

This current Sign-of-the-Times has an American University and the United Nations working together to look at unsung contributors to the DNP (Gross Domestic Product), non-profit and volunteer sectors. In 1978, Hazel Henderson opened the subject for me with her book “Paradigms in Progress: Life Beyond Economics”. In it she has a cake with each layer representing a different contribution to the economy. Most of the layers have never been considered a part of the official economic measure, GDP; the earth's resources (Mother Earth) and Sweat Equity, the whole non-profit and volunteer sector including home based production, unpaid household and parenting and more were left out. The only thing that counted was the private and public sectors.
I spoke to Hazel and asked her where she thought we were now in the trend to change how we measure the economy, figuring that it started with her book in 1978. Think of a trend as an "S" curve.

Hazel indicated she thought we were still on the upswing, but not at the highest part of the curve yet. She said that acceptance for change was high but that the biggest hinder was academicians who were deeply invested in their market economic paradigm. The inference here is that more inclusive ways of measuring our economic and social success will revolutionize our economy and that is a scary proposition for those invested in current methods. There is evidence that high percentages of Europeans understand that GDP doesn’t work, so there is growing grass-roots support for new ways to define success. Many new ways of measuring our success on the planet are already developed and have been described in earlier Signs of the Times. See “Previous signs of the times”, August 21, 2003 titled “Increase in holistic measurement of human development and quality of life” (near the bottom of the page) at: http://www.framtidsbygget.se/signs/prev6.htm. There may be a measurement for your city, region or organization.

Social Hugging

2007-11-28T06:33:00.000-08:00

In Sweden, The Red Cross has initiated a campaign, Hugs for the Lonely. They say that "The hug is the simplest gesture with which one can give another human being support, encouragement, comfort and human feeling. Hugs are wordless; exist in every language and expresses sympathy, friendship and belonging. They exist in all cultures and mean about the same thing the whole world over. Medical research shows that touch has a healing effect, primarily psychologically. The Red Cross states that no one should feel lonely" (my translation).

At the same time, at an American school a thirteen year old girl was punished for hugging two girlfriends. The term "public display of affection" is so ingrained that it has a shortened version, a "PDA". A distinction is made between those who are simply showing one of the emotions listed in the Red Cross definition and those seeking attention as in a couple engaging in activity with purely sexual overtones. In American schools, the problem seems to land in schools where twelve to fourteen year olds are attending. Many are feeling the first flush of hormones which will turn them adults with full reproductive potential. Another aspect of the problem is the mixing of cultures (increased migration and travel) blend expose individuals to more or less public affection between the sexes and between genders than their culture allows. Still other situations are found in the workplace where men and women are together many hours and often far from home (military, business trips, conferences.

One response is to eliminate public affection altogether (as has occurred in many American schools) and another is to define and then teach the differences between healthy touching, affection and unwanted or attention seeking advances. The response of making touching, like holding hands or giving hugs, a crime is a linear response. In linear thinking judgments come from one end or another of a continuum. Something is absolute, right or wrong, black or white, good or bad. In systemic thinking, there are a variety of responses along a continuum which could be better or worse choices given the situation. It means that parents and educators, managers and bosses have to be able to understand and describe behavioral nuances. This takes time and energy while allowing for the diversity of human behavior within clearly defined contexts. Linear thinking is simple, do and take the punishment or don't and loose any positive results that acceptance, inclusion and sympathy can provide.

Use less gasoline or fight more wars!

2007-11-23T05:51:00.000-08:00

Recently, I started getting notices that the major car manufacturers are coming out with hydrogen concept cars (see example URL below) and further that they will be ready for customers in mid 2008. They will be leased. Interesting that they are using this lease system again, just like they did with electric cars.

A monthly leasing fee, while not cheap, is still a more sellable amount than the $103,000 price of a new hydro car. That is understandable. During the leasing period, manufacturers get important feedback on the car and the whole system. What will be interesting is to see if they will scrap the cars at the end of the leasing period like they did with electric care. It is easy to get the feeling that car manfacturers are testing the market to see which type of fuel and matching car takes off among the public while still assuring the kinds of profit margins they were used to with petrolium vehicles. A lot of their profit has come from repairs and if hydrogen cars have fewer moving parts, it could take a bite out of their parts and repair businesses. Have a look at this article for more detail.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8139d758-92e0-11dc-ad39-0000779fd2ac.html

Niche communities for those who think alike

2007-05-21T08:09:00.000-07:00

We are living longer and can have as much as twenty plus years after the currently official retirement age (they are on their way up however). This period of retirement is already know as “active retirement” and it appears that those people, particularly in the Baby Boom generation want to retire with people who believe or have the same interests as themselves.

There are several ways to look at this phenomenon. As a trend, it may only last until the last Baby Boomer retires. However, children and grandchildren visiting their parents and grandparents might accept this as the natural way to live past a certain age. One could say that this is an American trend and so far I have no evidence to say it is true of not. We do know that people like to have friends that are like them. They may be from totally different backgrounds, but share the same values and views on life, they may be from the same cultural/religions background. We see this in immigrants who tend to move to areas where there are people who speak their language and who share a common cultural experience.

Some might say that all this forming of communities of likes is the opposite direction of diversity. It is one thing when older people want to be with their “own kind”, but if everyone did, what kind of world would it be? Would young people ever meet an older person? Would everyone live in their own community only going out for necessities and then returning? It could be positive if the communities were small enough where it was possible to know all or most of the members. Democracy is at its best when everyone can vote on the rules and matters of the group. It could be negative if communities get into arguments with other communities over common services or infrastructure. It could be that these communities become more self- contained with their own power sources and waste water treatment. It could be positive if communities were in contact with one another and even visited one another. Life might be less stressful in a community where the group made many decisions that individual’s make today at the same time individual control might increase because everyone has a say. The whole concept of smaller communities within the larger context could increase the feeling of security which Americans have seemed to have lost. Who will move to these communities when the Baby Boomers are no longer around, will it be their children, who also were a large demographic group?

There are many who feel that our cities are too large. Currently, half the world’s people live in cities more than ever before. We all are familiar with the negative side of cities, the isolation, not knowing your neighbors, having trouble meeting like minded people, crime, pollution, traffic. Will we be tired enough of all these irritations and inconveniences to move into smaller communities? Of course people who moved from small towns were often looking for anonymity, finding like minded people a little excitement and often a job. Electronic technologies mean that jobs can be performed anywhere. A little community out in the countryside might be just the thing!

Changing paradigms

2007-03-24T09:08:00.000-07:00

A paradigm of course is a world view. In this case we are referring to the scientific paradigm, which seems to be loosing ground to creation theory. That is, God created the world in seven days. We human's like challanges and understanding how that creation came about is huge. We of course, also want to know why it occured, what God's message is in this.

For perspective, we need to look back before the change into the Scientific Theory. Most people believed in God as creator. Many rulers were still considered part god and part man. Mathmatical knowledge and other branches had built up enough information that individuals like Newton got excited about the new rules and theories. Decartes, who is also connected with the new scientific paradigm, was a philosoper. The beginnings of the field of science were know as natural philosophy, the philosophy of nature. Philosophers of the time sought knowledge or scienta in Latin. The word Science came from this latin word. From around the 1200's to until the 1840's science was known as natural philosophy. So, you see science started as philosophy.

Science has had a great deal of status for over four hundred years. Philosophy has remained in university courses catalogues because it is such a time honored clasic and gets at the existance questions that today's Science doesn't address.

Is it time for a switch back to philosophy and religion? Intelligent Design accepts science under the umbrella of religion. New Age movements have swung over North America and Europe and some of it's expressions are becoming mainstream. Eastern European countries long denied their religions are going back to them. The great changes in weather, fuel insecurity are causing great alarm. Where do we turn, to science or to a god?

Unpressidented change is what appears to be driving people to believe in god again. Has the secular trend has run its course.? Many changes occuring at once have left people with questions neither science or philosophy seem to be able to answer. Yet, science has brought us too far just to dump it, so it keeps a place in the new paradigm just under God.

Having said that, it will take some time, and possibly more than one lifetime to see how this change will play out. Science is still very strong. This may just be a little bump on the screen or the indication of a definate paradigm change. Chanses are strong that there will be new definitions for science, philosophy and religion.

If you are interested in this question see The Future of Religion at http://www.wnrf.org/cms/faq.shtml

Natural Resources -To use or not to use

2007-02-28T04:59:00.000-08:00

When helping individuals and groups to understand why they take certain stances when it comes to a particular change, consultants and coaches can turn to Basic Values Charts. See more at: http://www.framtidsbygget.se/E/consult/index.htm bottom of the page.

For example, the values continuium upon which decisions to use or save natural resources will be made. Florence Kluckhohn, anthropologist, described how human beings orient themselves to nature, accepting that nature exists to serve humankind, or that humankind is subservient to nature, the middle ground being harmony with nature. How an individual orients him or herself along this “orientation” determines whether or not we save natural resources for the future or use them now. The decision is also influenced by how we think about people. If we think that people are basically out for themselves then it is incumbent upon us to make sure we have our piece of the pie. If we feel that people are basically good it is incumbent upon us to share nature’s bounty without destroying it for future generations. The beliefs each one of us have on these two continuums are usually unconscious, so unconsciousness that many of us never take a stand, we leave it to others. If we can help clients become articulate in voicing their values ground, they can become a part of the decision makering process and can more easily defend their rational for the conclusions they make.

The non-trend trend toward cleaner vehicles

2007-02-28T04:14:00.000-08:00

A " Fuel Cell Today 2006 Worldwide Survey" was made just last year to show the growth of fuel cell use. Fuel Cells for small electronic divices is the largest area growing area. This means that computers and other small appliances, like telephones, hand-held computers etc are able to run from hydrogen.

http://www.fuelcelltoday.com/FuelCellToday/FCTFiles/FCTArticleFiles/Article_1148_Fuel%20Cell%20Today%20World%20Survey%202006.pdf

Honda has a small version they are developing that can be used to warm water and heat a home as well as to fuel a hydrogen car. This is exciting and if it catches on it could mean that homes could be independent when it comes to heating and hot water. If it could also provide electricity for the home there would be less problems during the heavy storms predicted by global warming. Brown-outs and black-outs would be, in the beginning, only a problem for the poor. That could be easily solved by inclusion of solar power to run fuel cell equiptment. It appears that is the way we are heading.

Fractal Transactions

2007-01-29T08:27:00.000-08:00

Futurist Thomas Frey offers an economic scenario for Internet payment. When you make a purchase on the Internet, several related businesses will be paid simultaneously, manufacturers, transportation, distribution, call center, website operator etc. Programs are currently being configured to this end.

The question for discussion is what are the consequences for the consumer. How does one get their money back and from whom? Will it be from the distribution center who sent the wrong item or the shipper who caused it to arrive months later? Who will be the legally responsible party? Do my lawyers have to talk to lawyers from all of the companies involved? The legal profession is going to love that! Fractal Transactions sound good for the companies who get their money much sooner, but what about the consumer and who is looking out for their rights?

Ending addiction problems

2007-01-29T02:06:00.000-08:00

A Sign of the Times for January 2007: Scientists have discovered the brain system responsible for maintaining the addiction to cigarette smoking has been identified. The discovery was made when it was found that individuals with damage to a portion of the brain called the insula lost the urge to smoke and never relapsed unlike the four out of five smokers who have tried to quit.

Commentary: What are the possible consequences if this were to come true? If this signal system works for nicotine, it is assumed it could work with other addictive products. Drug/alcohol clinics, nicotine patches, many counseling services would dry up. Drug producers/ traffickers would loose their market incrementally as the technique/medication spreads. Farmers trying to survive on drug crops will loose their business and be forced to grow something else lucrative. Courts may use the treatment as a sentence, thus eliminating many individuals from jail terms.

On the other hand drug use might continue and a huge market for insula signal medicine, possibly called "the day after" medicine might be the biggest selling medicine ever created!